Birth rate in France : The decline under the microscope
The birth rate in France is declining, and the trend has been observed under the microscope by the Académie Nationale de Médecine and INED (French institute for demographic studies), which have each recently published a report on the subject.
What do the birth rate figures tell us ?
The decline recorded can be analysed through different factors. The total number of births has been steadily falling since 2010 in mainland France. At that date, the number of births was 832,000. In 2024, a historic low was recorded with 663,000 babies. To understand these figures, the post-war record was achieved in 1971 with 916,000 births. These raw figures should also be compared with the size of the population. Indeed, the size of the population bears an obvious link with the total number of births. The INSEE (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies) defines the birth rate as the number of births during the year relative to the total mean population for the year. The rate has been falling almost constantly for several decades. from 14.8 in 1982, it has dropped to 9.9 in 2023.
The analysis would be incomplete without mentioning the economic fertility index (ICF). This index relates the number of births per year to the number of women in an age class, to obtain a synthetic index. According to the INSEE, it can be interpreted as “the average number of children which would be borne by a fictitious generation of women who would exhibit, throughout their fertile years, the fertility rates per age observed during that year. It is expressed as a number of children per woman“. It is in fact a snapshot of the situation for the year, with no means of predicting the future (cf our detailed analysis available here). Demographers conventionally consider that a threshold of 2.05 corresponds to the level which enables the population not to fall in the long term, ignoring migratory flows to and from the nation. That index has also been dropping steadily since 2010 and reached 1.6 children per woman in 2024. It has returned to a level slightly below the level recorded in 1994 (1.7), following a period in the early 2000s when it was rising. As a comparison, the average level for Europe is 1.4 and France remains the European nation with the highest ICF. On a world scale, the index is estimated to be 2.3. For the two most populated nations, India and China, the indices are 2 and 1.1 respectively.
The declining birth rate, a basic trend due to multiple factors.
Over the last decades, the overall trend worldwide and even more so in the western nations is therefore of a lowering birth rate.
Many analyses have been put forward in order to understand the phenomenon. Among the explanatory factors, the social and professional status of women is important. Women are undertaking longer studies, and a much higher proportion of women have a salaried income. That factor is structural. In consequence, the age of mothers giving birth is tending to increase: “50 years ago, women giving birth were on average 26.5 years of age, today they are 31. The age on giving birth to a first child has gone up from 24 to 29 years old.”
Those nations which allow women to simultaneously conduct their professional life and their family life often achieve a higher fertility rate. That was the case for France compared to other European nations during the last decades.
Economic factors also play a role : unemployment, uncertainty for the future, rising housing costs which make it more difficult to acquire a larger home to house an additional child.
The question of support through a family policy also has its importance. The opinions of sociologists and demographers diverge on the question. However, a study by the HCFEA (High Council for the Family, Childhood and Age) reports a statistical link between birth rate and the level of public expenditure for families (measured as a percentage of GDP, (Gross Domestic Product). According to a mission by IGAS (General Inspectorate for Social Affairs) taken up by the Academy of Medicine : “France devoted 3.6 % of its GDP to families in 2017, the highest rate recorded in the OECD. However, in 2021, that figure had dropped to 2.2 %, which is less than the average for the European Union (2.4 %)”.
Eco-anxiety, and more generally the climate of uncertainty and anxiety linked to geopolitics and the future of democracy are factors contributing to the drop in fertility quoted in both reports. The INED noted a link between the overall anxiety and the projections on the number of children desired. “For equal characteristics, 35 % of 25-39 year-olds who are very concerned about the prospects for future generations intend “probably” or “definitely” to have a child (or an additional child) compared with 46 % of those who are less concerned. They also wish to have 0.11 children less“.
The question of biological and medical factors is considered by the report by the Medicine Academy. Delayed entry into maternity has an incidence because fertility declines with age. “The risk of infertility increases from one couple in five at 30 years old to one in three at 35 years old, and one in two at 40. Moreover, the quality of oocytes decreases with age, increasing the risk of miscarriage. In total, the reference simulation model, shows that around 75% of women trying to conceive at the age of 30 will achieve a pregnancy ending with a birth in the year, against only 66% at 35 and 44% at 40“.
Environmental and behavioural factors, or diseases such as obesity, also have an impact. “The concentration of spermatozoa in the sperm has reduced by more than 50% in less than forty years (1973 -2011) in western males. The list of chemical substances suspected of having an effect on la spermatogenesis is long“.
The persistent shortfall between desire and achievement.
The INED report published this week concentrates on the question of the desire for a child. The media have often reported on a facet of the report summarised in the title chosen by INED : “The French want to have less children”. In fact, the study notes that : “The fall in fertility intentions is much more marked for young adults under the age of 30 : the total number of children desired has reduced by 0.6 children on average in 20 years. It has fallen from 2.5 to 1.9 children desired by women and from 2.3 to 1.8 for men. As for all adults, half of young couples between 18 and 29 aspire to having exactly 2 children, but those wanting “0 or 1” now exceed those wanting “3 or more”, which was the other way round in 2005″.
These figures are in opposition with the vision by the Medicine Academy which, in its report suggests that : “The generation born between 2000 and 2012, resulting from a mini-boom in birth rate represents a hope of recovery. In the 2030 – 2040 time-frame, it will represent a numerous cohort of individuals of child-bearing age. If conditions are satisfied – stable job, accessible housing, true man/woman equality, parenthood support, consideration of eco-anxiety – this generation could reverse the trend“.
Another indication of the change in mentality reported in the study is the “ideal number of children per family”. The figure may be independent of the desired, or actual number, which adults have. The dominant model is largely that of a family with two children. “The model of a family with 2 children is widespread : all ages included between 18 and 49, two thirds (65 %) of women and men consider 2 to be the ideal number of children in a family, compared with less than half (47 %) in 1998. “3 or more” answers have become a minority (29 % in 2024, compared with 50 % in 1998) ».
The survey conducted by INED also points out the role of the so-called “egalitarian” concept on a lesser fertility intention. “In 2024, the participants, irrespective of their sex, who have an egalitarian conception of the roles of men and women in society exhibit lesser fertility intentions, whereas that conception had no effect in 2005“. It should be stressed that this relates to intentions. Although they may have some bearing, they do not however determine the entire life pattern of people.
These social trends towards reduced fertility go hand in hand with a constant : There remains a persistent shortfall between the desire for children and the actual number of children brought up in families. Many associations in France have for some time pointed out the discrepancy between desire and reality. The UNFPA (United Nations Fund for Population Activities) also mentioned it in its report on fertility (see our analysis here). In 1998, the ICF was at 1.78 whereas the number of children desired was at 2.7 children. In 2024, the index was established at 1.6 whereas the number of children desired was 2.3 on average.
The two recent reports, by the Medicine Academy and INED differ in their conclusions. INED recorded new standards in the number of children desired which goes along with the reduction in fertility. The Medicine Academy, which is more voluntarist, asserts that the trend could reverse. The list for the trend to reverse itself is more akin to a fairy tale wish list : “accessible housing, true man/woman equality, parenthood support, consideration of eco-anxiety”.
The two reports also have one thing in common : The blind spot on the question of intentionally aborted pregnancies. However, an abortion prevention policy could have an incidence on birth rate, and also the acceptance of a child, as a gift rather than as a burden to be borne.
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